Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
